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Air transport demand forecast

by:CNS     2021-07-08
Air transportation demand forecast 2021-06-20 08:42:57 forecast is a very important aspect of air transportation management: ① It is the need for system investment and planning. Whether projects such as airport new construction, renovation, expansion, and airline fleet adjustment are worth investing, when to invest, and the scale of investment must be determined based on the future air traffic volume. ②It is the basis of systematic economic evaluation. The investment scale of the various components of the civil aviation transportation system, the operating cost during the life cycle, and the economic benefits during the life cycle all depend on the forecast of the future air volume. If there is no scientific and reasonable transportation volume as the basis, it will inevitably fail to correctly measure the economic cost and economic benefits of the system, resulting in the loss of authenticity of economic evaluation. Usually, airlines make demand forecasts in order to plan a supply that can meet demand. Broadly speaking, tactical or operational decisions are derived from short-term 6 to 8 month transportation demand forecasts, and this forecast is included in the airline's operating plan to make a budget for the current year or the next year. Even aircraft schedules, maintenance plans, advertising and sales activities, and the development of new sales points ultimately rely on these short-term forecasts. There are also a large number of cooperation plans and strategic decisions with airlines that are generated by long-term forecasts. Almost all tactical or strategic decisions of airlines are ultimately generated by predictions. At the same time, forecasting is the most error-prone and least certain area. There is no absolute truth in forecasting, and there is no best way to guarantee accuracy. Airline forecasters use any kind of forecasting technology with different accuracy and complexity. Each technology has its advantages and disadvantages. No one can guarantee a constant accuracy. But because so many decisions depend on it, it is still necessary to make predictions. Aviation demand forecasts generally include passenger and cargo forecasts. Passenger transportation forecasts include passenger travel generation forecasts and passenger travel distribution forecasts. Freight forecasts include forecasts of occurrence of freight and forecasts of freight attraction. At the same time, according to the length of forecast time, aviation demand forecast can be divided into long-term forecast, medium-term forecast and short-term forecast. The length of the forecast period should be determined according to the requirements of the forecast target, subject to the needs of decision-making, and the forecast method should be selected with reference to the length of the forecast period and the amount of data. The main methods of aviation demand forecasting can be divided into three categories according to their nature: qualitative forecasting methods, quantitative forecasting methods and comprehensive analysis and judgment methods. Therefore, this is not an exhaustive review, so there may be some forecasting tools that are rarely used by airlines that are not mentioned. Some widely used forecasting methods are often used in combination. As the complexity increases, forecasting can be divided into three categories: qualitative methods, time series, causal analysis or econometric methods.
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