prospects brighten for shipping industry
However, supply despite cancellation of order and delay of delivery
The side challenges of the dry bulk segment and the slow recovery of trade in the tanker segment will continue to drag down freight charges.
Driven by the recovery of China\'s dry bulk trade and the steady growth of India\'s trade, dry bulk demand in 2013 seems likely to recover healthily.
While freight rates are expected to be affected by the increase in fleet, the increase in freight rates will be the result of shipping companies raising rates to ensure recovery of operating and financing costs.
Shipping companies cannot make their ships profitable in terms of current freight charges.
Therefore, despite the low utilization rate in 2013, a slight improvement over the 71 estimated in 2012, dry bulk freight is expected to increase by 14-
For the industry, this projected freight trend will be an exciting sign, far from what happened in 2012.
Reflecting the trend in the dry bulk sector, average tanker freight is also expected to resume in 2013 due to a decrease in net fleet and a slight improvement in global shippingTrade in POL. POL (
Oil, oil and lubricants)
Trade is expected to grow by 1% and average tanker freight will increase by 13-
The drop in tanker freight in 2012 was due to the drop in tanker time charter rates by nearly 19 and the drop in spot rates by nearly 10, mainly due to the slowdown in POL trade and the excess capacity of tankers.
In 2013, the consumption of petroleum products in developed economies was still relatively low, and the production of POL products in the United States was also rising. S.
This will affect the growth of demand in the tanker market.
However, the decrease in net fleet growth will lead to higher capacity utilization.
High exposure Indian players have a high exposure to the POL part: data from 2011 showed that tankers accounted for 62 of the Indian shipping fleet, while dry bulk accounted for about 1 offshore.
The utilization rate of oil tankers is also expected to stabilize at 52-
Due to weak demand growth and reduced fleet growth, the growth rate in 2013 was 53.
The profitability of the industry will still be under pressure and revenue is expected to be 2-
3% during 2012
13 and the operating profit margin is more or less maintained at 2011-
Level 12 due to the above factors. In the medium-
In the long run, in order to overcome the ongoing downturn, players are reducing their capacity and increasing their exposure to the offshore market --
It is mainly to lease drilling rigs and offshore support services to deep sea exploration companies.
We believe that the need to strengthen energy security and increase crude oil prices will drive investment in exploration and production.
In India, due to rising crude oil prices, the capital expenditure of E & P participants has increased over the past few years, and the exploration area under NELP has increased (
New Exploration Licensing Policy)
More private players are involved, increasing the execution speed of exploration activities.
As a result, demand for offshore shipping services has increased.
What makes this segment attractive to players is that the profit margin of the offshore segment is 35-
40, much higher than the dry bulk cargo and tanker section.
For a better future, the industry will pray for an early recovery of the global economy, especially in major economies such as China and the United States. S. , and India.
Even so, the most optimistic participants will not dream of returning to the quiet days before the 2008 financial crisis, when the Baltic Dry Goods index zoomed to a level that looks very high today.