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The complexity of transportation demand analysis

by:CNS     2021-07-05
The complexity of transportation demand analysis 2021-06-20 19:30:261. The complexity of the transportation market (1) The concept of the transportation market. The transportation market is a very complicated concept, and transportation economic analysis should avoid talking about the general transportation market in general. According to the specific issues raised, we should distinguish various transportation services based on specific transportation objects (different types of goods or passengers), specific transportation purposes and specific origin and arrival locations, and analyze them based on the reliable data that can be collected. Therefore, some transportation economists put forward that the transportation market is a group of transportation services whose output and price can be calculated. The output in each specific transportation market should be homogeneous, that is, the origin and destination, the transportation direction, and the goods or objects transported are the same, and should not be confused with the demand and supply in other transportation markets. (2) The specific transportation market does not exclude the existence of several transportation vehicles that can replace or compete with each other, as long as they provide relatively homogeneous transportation services or products. (3) Reasons for the complexity of the transportation market: ①The mutual substitution between transportation modes increases the difficulty of analysis. ② Multiple origins and destinations. ③A limited number of transportation channels connect countless passenger and cargo flows and origin and arrival locations. Therefore, on these channels and the transportation vehicles that use the channels, various transportation products or services, and their corresponding specific transportation market will meet Overlap and intertwined. 2. Difficulty in determining relevant measurement indicators (1) The establishment or selection of indicators required for transportation economic analysis, the acquisition of statistical data and other data are all very difficult. (2) One of the statistical indicators: transportation volume indicators. The tonnage of freight and the number of passengers sent are two important statistical indicators in the field of transportation. However, if only the two indicators of tonnage and number of people are used, it cannot reflect one of the most important factors in transportation activities-transportation distance. (3) The second of statistics and analysis indicators: turnover indicators. The composite index ton-kilometer of Guangzhou logistics in freight transportation is the product of the tonnage of the goods transported and the transportation distance. The composite indicator in passenger transportation is the product of the number of people transported and the distance transported. (4) The advantages of these two composite indicators: ① The ton dry meter indicator can help people grasp the cargo transportation volume from the two perspectives of cargo weight and transportation distance. ②The person-kilometer indicator can help people grasp passenger traffic from the two perspectives of number of people and transportation distance. ③It is closer to the concept of the spatial displacement of transport products, that is, cargo and passengers. 3. Uncertainty in the understanding of the concept of transportation prices (1) Many transportation economists advocate that the average freight rate of ton-kilometers should be used for cargo transportation, and the average freight rate per person-kilometer should be used for passenger transportation. The figures on the published tariffs are more realistic and comparable to specific transportation flows. (2) The calculation of the average freight per ton-kilometer and the average freight per person-kilometer is to divide the total revenue collected by a certain transportation service (or a certain type) by all the transportation services generated by that time (or this type). Ton-kilometers or total person-kilometers. (3) The average freight rate per ton-kilometer or average freight rate per person-kilometer is not very ideal as an indicator of the unit transportation product price level. There are several reasons: ①The total amount of income or expenses available and the total amount of ton The cumulative transportation volume of meters and person-kilometers often has a large degree of non-homogeneity. ②Different types of transportation demand have different elasticity to freight rate changes, which will also restrict the use of average freight. ③The average freight cannot reflect the additional cost, so it cannot represent the full cost of the user. ④The average freight does not include the transportation time cost, which is becoming more and more important to people. 4. Real transportation demand curve Due to the complexity of the transportation market and the difficulty of determining the relevant measurement indicators, transportation economic analysis needs to be extra cautious. For example, the possible real transportation demand curve is not a straight line, but an uneven trend. It is obviously difficult for Guangzhou-Nanjing logistics companies to accurately determine the elasticity value of any point on this demand curve. Since ton-kilometers, person-kilometers, ton-kilometers average freight and person-km average freight have these limitations, why not choose other more suitable indicators to analyze the transportation market? The answer is that there may not be a better one. index. The extent to which an indicator can correctly reflect the content it represents depends mainly on how the data aggregated according to these indicators and its components react to external influences. The complexity of transportation economic analysis comes from the complexity of the transportation market, the extreme diversification of transportation products or services and the relationship between supply and demand on the network, not just the selection of measurement indicators. Of course, the difficulty of describing the research object determines the difficulty of the research work to a large extent. This is also to remind the analyst to determine the transportation market boundary to be analyzed and collect relevant data, and use it as a basis to draw conclusions. And the main reason why you must be extra cautious when formulating policies or business countermeasures.
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