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Outlook Of China's Air Cargo Shipping In 2021

Outlook Of China's Air Cargo Shipping In 2021


Part two Challenges in the development of air cargo

1.The novel coronavirus pneumonia has a worldwide impact on the aviation industry.

The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia has a great impact on the global economy, international trade and civil aviation industry. The World Bank expects the global economy to shrink by 4.4% in 2020. According to the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, the volume of Global trade in goods in 2020 will drop by 5.6% year-on-year, which is the largest drop in trade in goods since the 2008 financial crisis. According to the data released by the International Airport Association, in 2020, the total revenue of global airports evaporated by $111.8 billion, down 65% compared with that in 2019. The International Air Transport Association estimates that in 2020, the net income of World Airlines will decrease by 118.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 66.3%.

Although the recovery of air cargo is relatively fast compared with air passenger transport, the growth rate of manufacturing industry, especially all kinds of goods that need air transport, is bound to be affected by the epidemic. The large-scale suspension of passenger aircraft directly leads to the reduction of freight transport capacity, the difficulty of one cargo aircraft, and the high air freight rate, which in turn affects the global and Chinese industrial chain and supply chain. According to the data released by the International Air Transport Association, in 2020, the global air cargo demand decreased by 10.6% compared with that in 2019, and the global cargo capacity decreased by 23.3% compared with that in 2019, which is more than twice the decrease of demand.

The epidemic will also promote the restructuring of global industrial structure. In the epidemic situation, China's manufacturing industry has the advantages of rapid restart, timely and stable supply, and relatively mature technology. During the epidemic period, planes from all over the world came to China to transport anti epidemic materials such as masks, protective clothing and ventilators, as well as production materials such as electronic products and accessories, mechanical equipment and medical devices. At the same time, global high-quality goods were transported to China to meet the growing living needs of the people.

 2.Competition among other modes of transportation intensifies

Compared with air freight, the advantages of land freight transportation are particularly obvious. In 2019, the national highway mileage will reach 5012500 km, and the highway freight volume will reach 34.35 billion tons, accounting for 72.8% of the national freight volume. With the continuous improvement of infrastructure, highway plays a leading role in domestic express and short distance transportation. The advantages of highway are: first, it is cheap; second, it can solve the transportation problems of the first kilometer and the last kilometer.

In December 2020, the 350 km / h high-speed freight EMU successfully developed in China will be offline. The EMU is equipped with four motor vehicles, four trailers and eight cars, with a load of no less than 110 tons and a carrying capacity of no less than 800 cubic meters. It is used to meet the freight transportation demand of 600 km to 1500 km. Compared with air cargo, environmental factors have less impact, low cost, high load, large volume and fast time. If it is put into operation in a large scale, it will have a great impact on the domestic transportation of air cargo. In addition, the competition between China Europe railway and air freight is fierce in the medium and long-distance freight transportation from China to Central Asia, Russia, central and Eastern Europe, and Western Europe.

2020 is the craziest year for air cargo and maritime logistics, with shortage of transport capacity, full cabin and soaring freight rate. Compared with air transportation, sea transportation has the advantages of low price, large transportation volume, less restrictions on goods, and outstanding advantages in cross-border e-commerce bonded goods preparation and overseas warehouse. In 2020, the shortage of transportation capacity caused by the epidemic has given birth to more sea air intermodal freight products combining the advantages of sea transportation and air transportation.

Various modes of transportation are deepening, but the competition is also intensified. In addition, the reconstruction of global industrial chain, Sino US trade relations, brexit, trade protectionism and other factors make the development of air cargo uncertain. In addition, the problems of China's air cargo have been accumulated for a long time, and the improvement of cargo capacity is not a temporary success. Therefore, it is the key to maintain an objective and calm attitude, and persistently promote the development of cargo with a long-term development vision.

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