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Outlook Of China's Air Cargo In 2021

Outlook Of China's Air Cargo In 2021


Novel coronavirus pneumonia is reshaping the global competition pattern. China's air cargo has ushered in the 2021 full of expectations in fighting the epidemic situation and helping the economic and social recovery and development. 2021 is the first year of the fourteenth five year plan. How to take the lead in the crisis, open up a new situation in the changing situation, accelerate the improvement of the overall competitiveness, and fully guarantee the stability of the national industrial chain and supply chain has attracted the attention of all parties.

Part One Opportunities For Air Cargo Development

  1. Economic And Foreign Trade Growth Is The Foundation Of Air Cargo Development

Although China was hit by novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020, China's GDP reached 101 trillion and 600 billion yuan, up 2.3% from 2019, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth. According to preliminary estimates, China's GDP will account for 17.6% of the global GDP in 2020, 1.3 percentage points higher than that in 2019. In 2020, China's total import and export value will be 32.16 trillion yuan, up 1.9% year on year. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner for the first time, with an increase of 7% in import and export with China; the European and American markets have recovered, with an increase of 5.3% and 8.8% in import and export with China respectively, and China has surpassed the United States as the largest trading partner of the European Union. By the end of 2020, China has signed 19 free trade agreements with 26 countries and regions. Among them, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement was signed in November, and the China EU investment agreement negotiation was completed in December. It is actively considering joining the comprehensive and progressive trans Pacific Partnership Agreement.

Since 2021, the purchasing manager's index of new export orders of manufacturing industry has grown globally, and global industrial production has recovered. It is expected that overseas economies will still rely heavily on China's exports in 2021. One belt, one road initiative, China's novel coronavirus pneumonia strategy, the cross-border electricity supplier support policy and the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation will be implemented in 2021. China's overall economy will continue to grow steadily. According to the latest global economic outlook released by the world bank, the global economy will grow by 4% or less in 2021, but China's economic growth is expected to reach 7.9%. The continuous improvement of the overall economy and foreign trade provides a fundamental guarantee for the stable development of China's air cargo industry. At the same time, it also needs the air cargo industry to improve its competitiveness, especially the medium and long-distance cargo and mail transportation capacity, so as to better serve the economic development.

2. The Promotion Of Production And Consumption Demand Is The Guarantee Of Freight Development

China is a large developing country with 1.4 billion people, 900 million labor resources and 120 million market players. In recent years, China, the "world factory", has been upgrading from providing OEM, producing spare parts and low-end consumer goods to continuously developing and innovating, paying equal attention to production and R & D, establishing brand, improving service and opening the road of globalization. At present, China has occupied a place in the key fields of smart phones, UAVs, artificial intelligence, 5g, security monitoring, computers, machinery manufacturing, etc. Huawei, Dajiang, Xiaomi and other brands have already gone abroad, with users all over the world. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, many overseas factories will be in a state of semi-stop production, and the demand of overseas consumers for "made in China" will rise. Customs data show that in 2020, China's exports of notebook computers and other "home economy" products will reach 2.51 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year on year. The development of China's real economy and manufacturing industry has laid a foundation for the steady development of air cargo.

The huge domestic consumer market is also a powerful driving factor for the development of China's air cargo industry. With the increase of income level, Chinese residents expect to have more and better choices of goods and services. The booming e-commerce market is just in line with the growing consumer demand. According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three quarters of 2020, the national online retail sales exceeded 8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%; the online retail sales of physical goods reached 6.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The express industry, which plays a supporting role in the e-commerce market, develops faster. In 2020, the business volume of national express service enterprises will reach 83.36 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 31.2%. In the first 38 days of 2021, China's express business volume has reached 10 billion pieces. As a relatively high efficiency mode of transportation, air cargo has obvious advantages in meeting domestic production and consumption demand.

Whether it's fresh food, temperature control drugs, or all kinds of vaccines, cold chain goods are of high value and strict requirements on transportation timeliness and storage reliability, so they belong to aviation preferred goods. With the vigorous promotion of Xinguan vaccine, every link of the air cargo supply chain, such as freight forwarders, airlines, freight stations, truck companies, should be fully prepared from the aspects of facilities and equipment, support process, professional personnel, etc. According to the white paper jointly issued by international logistics giant DHL and McKinsey, the global demand for new crown vaccine will exceed 10 billion doses, requiring about 15000 Boeing B747 freighters to transport.

3. The Continuous Introduction Of Supporting Policies Is The Driving Force Of Freight Development

In 2020, the importance of air cargo in ensuring the smooth industrial chain and supply chain has been fully reflected, and how to improve China's air cargo capacity has become a hot topic. Since March 2020, the Civil Aviation Administration has successively issued such documents as the notice on the establishment and approval of "green channel" for international air cargo during the epidemic prevention and control period, the notice on accurately doing a good job in the epidemic prevention and control work for international air cargo crew, and the implementation of financial support policy for civil aviation transport enterprises to stabilize and improve their international cargo capacity during the epidemic prevention and control period The effective epidemic prevention and control of freight flights ensures the smooth flow of goods in the air transportation channel, and helps the global epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of work and production.

In order to comprehensively improve the air cargo capacity, the national development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration jointly issued the "opinions on promoting the development of air cargo facilities" in August 2020, which proposed to change the idea of "valuing passengers over goods", improve the use efficiency of air cargo facilities, encourage air cargo enterprises and express logistics enterprises to break the ownership restrictions, and accelerate the cultivation of large-scale express goods with international competitiveness Flow enterprises and innovative financing mode provide policy guidance for the development direction and path of air cargo. At the same time, CAAC has issued the notice on further optimizing the policy of flight management for freight routes and the policy of flight schedule allocation for cargo and mail flights, striving to gradually solve the problem of difficult flight schedule for freight, and also put forward three measures to improve the efficiency of "the last kilometer" of air logistics, so as to promote the steady development of freight from various aspects and dimensions.

In 2021, we will make every effort to ensure the high-quality implementation of the policies, and effectively solve the existing problems such as lack of freight transport capacity, weak international transport capacity, lack of professional support facilities, insufficient freight flight schedule, backward information construction, and the need to strengthen the integration with the manufacturing industry, which need to be jointly promoted by the whole industry.

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